Country Study, Slovenia: Winning the Transitional Economies Race
Country Study, Slovenia: Winning the Transitional Economies Race
Country Study
Slovenia:
Winning the Transitional Economies Race
Submitted by
Michael Milton Peter mpeter@indiana.edu
Robert Scott Taylor staylor@indiana.edu
Dmitri Maslitchenko dmitri@mailroom.com
Government Finance in Transition Economies
Professor John Mikesell
Fall 1996
The
World Development Report: From Plan to Market (WDR) argues
that
with consistent and sustained reforms, transition countries can
achieve
successful long-term economic growth, but also warns that
many
challenges and risks -- among them long-term stagnation and
rising
poverty -- still lie ahead for some countries.
-World
Bank News, June 27,1996-
INTRODUCTION
Five years ago a small republic of the
former Yugoslavia, started on its path of transition from an eastern block
socialist government with a planned economy to a democratic government with a
free market economy. Fortunately, the rocky road, described by the World
Bank News in the quote above, has not been long for Slovenia. Although
Slovenia was the most prosperous Republic before the dissolution of
Yugoslavia, after the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991, Slovenia experienced high
levels of inflation, a drop in the GDP and a tripling of the unemployment
levels[1]. These problems did not stop Slovenia’s transition to
an economic powerhouse in the former Eastern Bloc. However, Slovenia had
several advantages over other Eastern Bloc countries which aided in such a
successful transition. This analysis will present both Slovenia’s
historical and current economic status by examining the political and economic
background, budgetary and monetary conditions, expenditure policies and
assignment, tax structure and administration, and social insurance.
Political and Economic Background
Passing through its transition period from
a centrally planned economy to a market economy, Slovenia has dealt with some
successes and some failures. However, Slovenia’s experiences and economic
policies could prove to be helpful for other economies in transition. There
are many reasons why the transition period for Slovenia has been successful.
The foundation for its quick transformation to a market economy lies within the
positioning of Slovenia in the history of Yugoslavia before and after its
dissolution.
After the end of World War II,
Yugoslavia’s definition of socialism changed. Ownership of the means of
production was defined as ‘social’ rather than ‘state’ and firms were managed
by workers councils. No central planning existed after 1965 and Slovenia, as
well as the other republics in Yugoslavia, were given a high degree of
autonomy. Also Tito, a former leader of Yugoslavia, had deviated from the
‘command economy’ model of the Soviet Institution. As a result, the
Yugoslavian government policy had an emphasis on a greater sense of
autonomy, as far the economy was concerned.[2] The Republic of Slovenia developed its
economic base by increasing the level of manufacturing in the republic as well
as establishing stronger ties with the Western European countries.[3] Slovenia had always been oriented
towards the west, however, due to its northwestern location in Yugoslavia, its
economic interaction with the western countries led it to become market
oriented faster than other Eastern Europe countries.
While Slovenia was a part of Yugoslavia,
it was by far the most successful republic with a per capita income of almost
double that of the national average.[4] The Slovene economy could not be solely
dependent on the national market and therefore they actively traded with Italy,
Austria, Bulgaria and Hungary. In fact, “with only 8% of the population,
little Slovenia brought in 25-30% of Yugoslavia’s foreign exchange.”[5] Also, Slovenia accounted for 20% of the
country’s Gross Domestic Product.[6] As a result of this high degree of
decentralization and positive net outflows, the aforementioned characteristics
provided the economic basis to secession. In May 1990, the people of Slovenia
elected a government whose economic policy, according to Mencinger, " was
set by the premise that prospects of transition to a market economy were
worsening; the economic policy of the federal government mistaken, the existing
economic system unsuitable, and the Federation facing political turmoil."[7] The referendum on independence passed
with 90 percent support. Since that 1990 vote, Slovenia has come a long way
economically.
Slovenia declared its independence on June
25, 1991. The first year for Slovenia was quite difficult. “Real GDP fell 15%
during 1991-92, while inflation jumped to 247% in 1991 and unemployment topped
8% - nearly three times the 1989 level.”[8] The economy continued to plummet until
1993 when it flatten and then head into the positive direction. By 1993
unemployment was at 11% and many companies had lost almost 30% of their markets
due to the bitter conflict in Bosnia and the loss of faith in the region by
international trade partners.[9] However, “[a]t its current rates of economic growth,
[slovenia] it could pass EU members Greece and Portugal in four to five years.”[10]
Current Economic Conditions
Gross Domestic Product
In order to appreciate the current
economic conditions of the country, it is necessary to examine some of the
economic indicators in relation to their past figures. The
first indicator is Gross Domestic Product. According to the EIU Country Report
for the 2nd quarter of 1996, the real GDP growth percentage is slowing down.
In fact between 1994 and 1995 there was a -1.4% increase in GDP.[11] Even though there was a negative change,
the Chamber of Economy in Slovenia states that due to “tremendous growth of
new companies, particularly small businesses, and the shift of foreign trade
westward,” they project that slovenia is expecting to experience a 5-6 percent
increase in GDP in the period up to the year 2000.[12] In addition, “the GDP per capita is
higher than those of Greece and Portugal, double that of Hungary and the Czech
Republic, and it has a comparatively efficient manufacturing sector.”[13] Currently, mining and manufacturing are
contributing the largest percentage to the GDP (figures from 1995 report 31%)
with Trade, Hotels and Restaurants and Financial Market Services at 14% each.
Although, Slovenia continues to depend on manufacturing and machinery production,
other industries continue to grow and keep a diverse base for Slovenia’s GDP.
(See Appendix I) The country of 2 million people has a GDP of more than $18.5
billion.[14] The EIU predicts that the real GDP percentage change
form the previous year will be 3.0 and 4.0 in 1996 and 1997, respectively.[15] (See Appendix II)
Imports and Exports
Other important indicators are foreign
imports and exports. In 1995 Slovenia had $20.8 billion in foreign trade,
goods and services. Slovenia’s international trade has been geared towards
western Europe, especially Italy and Germany.[16] (See Appendix III & IV) One advantage
that Slovenia has had in trading with the Western European countries, is that
Western Europe does not charge any duty on good entering their countries from
Slovenia, except some agriculture, steel and textile products; in 1995 70% of
all of Slovenia’s foreign trade went to the EU.[17] Western Europe has maintained a high
demand for machinery and transport equipment, comprising 27% of Slovenia’s
exports. (See Appendix V &VI) This consistent link with the West also is
evident in the political philosophy of Slovenia.
Inflation
In 1991, when the Republic of Slovenia
first started establishing policy towards a market economy, the inflation rate
reached a peak of 247.1%.[18] This was expected, since the economy was moving from
a highly state subsidized centrally planned economy to a free- market economy.
Fortunately, by 1995 the inflation rate had reached 9.5%.[19] One important quality of this transition
was that Slovenia managed to bring inflation under control without any
balance-of payment problems. Inflation in 1996 thus far is at 10.7% a small
increase form 1995, however, the Chamber of Economy of Slovenia has a positive
outlook for the next year.[20] (See Appendix VII)
Privatization
In 1994, the Slovenian government took its
first steps towards privatization. At first the country observed the other
Eastern Bloc countries and learned from their failures. The companies or
enterprises’ were allowed to choose between five privatization models, which
were then approved by the Agency for Privatization.[21] Most of the companies were sold off to
the workers and managers.
The citizens were given privatization
coupons valued at 100,000 - 400,000 Tolars, depending on the age of the
individual. The coupons could be used to buy shares or invest the money into
securities. Over 45% percent of the coupons were invested into fund
securities.[22] According to Price Waterhouse, over 400 enterprises
have been successfully privatized and another 1000 will soon be at the same
status. However, some companies, such as public utilities, national telecom,
and two commercial banks have not gone through the process; the government
states that these entities will undergo special privatization processes.[23]
Political Situation
On the 25th of June, 1991, Slovenia
declared the end of its political ties with the former Yugoslavia. Although,
the government of the former Yugoslavia did not want the republic to secede,
after a mild show of military force, Yugoslavia gave Slovenia up. Since then,
the National Assembly has been the main legislative body of the Republic of
Slovenia. This national legislature consists of 90 members that are directly
elected by the people for four year terms. In addition, there is the Council
of State that is elected for five years. This council has 40 members, 22
representing local interests, 12 evenly divided between employers, and 6
representing non-economic activities.[24]
Slovenia is currently governed by two dominant
parties who have formed a government coalition, the Liberal Democracy of
Slovenia (LDS) and the Slovene Christian Democrats (SKD). The LDS stems from
the youth movement of the former communists while the SKD originates from a
Christian tradition dating back before the Second World War.[25] The differences in these groups are the
main reasons why there seldom is cooperation in making government decisions.
However, there are other parties with greater opposition: the Social Democrat
Party of Slovenia(SDSS), the Slovene National Party (SNP) and the Slovene
People’s Party (SLS).[26]
One aspect that has helped Slovenia remain
stable politically is that the ethnic make-up is not extremely diverse.
Almost, 91% of the population is Slovene and they are predominantly Roman
Catholic.[27] (See Appendix VIII ) This composition has allowed
Slovenia to focus on economic revival rather than religious ethnic conflict,
quite unlike their neighbors to the south in Bosnia-Herzogovina.
In November of 1996, Slovenia had elections
and most of the incumbents were re-elected. The LDS won the most seats (25) and
the Slovenian People’s Party, conservatives, won the second largest at 19.[28] This could cause a conflict because, both
the liberals and the conservatives have gained a significant amount of power
after this election. In the coming months the coalitions that form with the
parties with fewer seats could be significant for the political climate of
Slovenia. The far right conservatives, United List of Social Democrats(ZLSD- former
communists), do not back Slovenia’s entrance into NATO, claiming neutrality
should be considered an option; the entrance into the EU will be supported by
the ZLSD.[29] However, economists warn that Slovenia should not
rely on its economic successes in the past but instead should focus on
increasing privatization and address the slowing industrial production and
rising unemployment.[30] The new government needs to continue to work towards
improving the economic state of the Republic if they expect to become more like
a Western European country.
Budgetary and Monetary Conditions
Slovenia began to stabilize its economy
before it had gained its complete independence because inflation was increasing
drastically. Although, Slovenia made a clean break to independence, there
were some costs involved. Slovenia had 33 percent of its exports going to
Yugoslavia, however, with its independence Slovenia had an instant 6 percent
decrease in its GDP.[31] This economic shock was small in comparison to the
38 percent decrease in industrial production Slovenia faced because of its
transitional state. Slovenia stabilized its economy by October 1992. This was
achieved through the introduction of a new currency, the tolar, and the
creation of an independent central bank, the Bank of Slovenia.
The financial sector plays a key role in
the transition process. In 1995, the financial and market services sector
comprised 14% of the GDP, the second largest contributor.[32] In addition, a strong financial sector is
necessary for resource allocation and mobilization, and a prerequisite for any
large-scale privatization scheme.
In 1991, there was a lack of financial
regulation in Slovenia, which produced many problems. Most banks were owned by
the firms to whom they lent. As a result, 30-40 percent of the loans on the
books were non-performing.[33] This combined with a monopolistic structure, lead to
exorbitant lending rates, preventing many viable enterprises from access to
capital. In addition, a healthy banking system requires recapitalization and
investment to improve service. This was not happening right away in Slovenia.
As a result, banks were audited in 1991 and in the autumn of that year, the
Bank Restructuring Agency was founded to deal with these problems and to help restore
competition. Now, most banks in Slovenia have been privatized except two which
remain state-owned.
Monetary Policy
Facing expansionary monetary policy,
Slovenia needed some financial discipline for the newly created enterprises and
government, thus, they created the Bank of Slovenia. The bank was created with
the objectives to stabilize prices and establish a balanced functioning of
domestic and international payments. The law that mandated the Bank of
Slovenia, allowed the bank to execute monetary policy, free from political
control. Another characteristic of the Bank of Slovenia that helped its
success, was that the bank would only give out short-term loans to the
government to cover cash flow problems. This restriction served to be effective
in preventing the accumulation of deficits. In 1994 the Bank of Slovenia
introduced a number of legislative acts which covered the following areas:
*
accounting standards and financial statements
*
methods of calculation of capital and capital adequacy
*
criteria for the classification of balance sheet and off-balance sheet items
*
the levels of provisioning for potential losses
*
the level of exposure to a single borrower
*
capital investments and fixed assets reducing the capital
This legislation was adopted with the intent to ensure
safer bank operations that conform to the basic principles of liquidity,
solvency and profitability.[34]
In the early years of transition 1991-1992
the Bank of Slovenia allowed several new banks to start up. Now, in 1996
Slovenia has the highest concentration of banks in their region, with 31 banks
and a relatively small population of 2 million. The central bank was faced
with the problem of deterring speculators to avoid any kind of banking crisis.
The central bank decided to increase the amount in minimum capital requirements
for banks to $35 million. This move prevented any future mis-happenings while
also pushing banks towards consolidation.
Currency
In October 1991, the Tolar was
introduced. As a means of inflation-proofing, the law allowed contracts and
wage agreements to be denominated in foreign currency so no exchange was
required. The deposits in the banks were converted automatically on a
one-to-one basis and 86 billion dinars of personal cash were converted within a
short period of time. The tolar’s introduction came with ease as more than 80
percent of household monetary savings were in foreign currency deposits.[35] The Tolar’s exchange rate quickly
stabilized due to a highly restrictive monetary policy which was aimed at
decreasing inflation, increasing stability and strengthening the domestic
currency.[36] Between 1993 and 1995 the Tolar was depreciated to
reflect a real exchange rate. (See Appendix IX) This monetary policy aided in
stabilizing the Tolar and making it fully convertible. On November 19, 1996,
1USD was equivalent to 137.69 Tolars.[37] In addition, the stabilization allowed
for foreign investors to conduct business in USD, DM or Tolar.
Slovenia put tight controls on foreign
currency movements in order to maintain the stability of the tolar. Since the
introduction of the Tolar, total savings deposits have increased by over 494
billion Tolars. Savings in 1995 accounted for 23.3 percent of GDP.
Also, Slovenia has a positive balance
between the foreign debt and exchange reserves. By August of 1996, foreign
allocated debt had reached $4.21 Billion and the exchange reserves were at $4.3
Billion. (See Appendix X) This positive balance shows that the country’s
economy continues to stabilize.
Furthermore, Slovenia has managed to get
credit ratings higher than those of Greece and other countries with longer
histories of being democracies and having market economies.[38] As of May 1996, Slovenia had the
following Country Credit Ratings : [39]
Moody’s Investor’s
Service A3
Standard’s &
Poor’s A
IBCA A-
In addition, according to Institutional Investors,
Slovenia ranks 47th among 135 countries, with regards to potential areas for
investment.[40]
Expenditure Policies and Assignments
In October 1995, the Parliament
unanimously approved the 1996 draft budget presented by Slovene Prime Minister
Janez Drnovsek. Expenditures are expected to be about 570 billion Tolars
(about $5 Bill.).[41] A significant portion of the expenditures are
allocated for health, education and infrastructure. Revenues for 1996 were
expected to be 582 billion Tolars, about
46.5% of Slovenia’s GDP.[42] The surplus is allocated to cover the
Pension and Invalidity Insurance Funds, this action preempts the expected
expenditure of 42 billions Tolars in 1997 towards the Pension Fund which is a
20% increase from 1996.[43] One-third of the budget will be spent on Civil
Servants salaries and contributions, much higher that the 1995, due to the
desire to increase public employees salaries. Nearly 11 billion Tolars will be
spent on subsidies to exporters for social welfare contributions, technological
development, and for maintaining current levels of employment.[44] Although, there were no current figures
available concerning defense expenditures figures from 1993 show 13.4 billion
Tolars were allocated for the military, about 4.5% of the GDP.[45] Finally about four million Tolars are
allocated for liabilities in international agreements to members of the Paris
Club and commercial banks; this is a new item in the budget.[46] However, the current expenditures are
being met by disapproval from the Slovenian businessmen, who wanted a budget
for 1996 to be equivalent to the 1995 budget. This demand was not possible for
Slovenia, as it tries to battle inflation, unemployment and provide for its’
citizens welfare.
Tax Structure and Administration
Intergovernmental Financial Relationships
Slovenia has had relative success with the
administration and collection of taxes from its citizens and corporations at
all levels of government.. Article 147 of the Constitution states very
generally: " the state shall levy taxes, custom duties and other charges
in accordance with statute. Local government bodies shall levy taxes
and other charges in such circumstances as are determined by this Constitution
and by statute."[47] This constant flow of funds has allowed the
government to continue to provide needed services, as well as end several
years, since independence, with budget surpluses. The country has tried to
diversify the tax base, which has also added to the increased stability of the
tax base.
Administration
The Slovene government is making extra
efforts to insure successful implementation of tax policy. Slovenian tax
administrators are taking part in the OECD’s multilateral tax network program
which provides advice on taxation practice, policy and systems, with workshops
for administrators in member countries such as Austria, Denmark, Hungary and
Turkey. In addition, this program will evaluate the countries after the year
is over, regarding their effectiveness in implementing tax policy. A key
factor that has aided in the current implementation of the tax system is that
the Slovenian Tolar is internally convertible, and therefore, foreign investors
or business dealing can take place easily in foreign or domestic currency.
In 1997, Slovenia intends to unify the
tax administration offices. Currently, there are two tax collection services,
one for the companies and one for the individuals.[48] In addition, according to OECD, in the
next two years there will be significant changes in the tax policy and
administration in Slovenia.
Currently, the tax year runs from 1
January to 31 December, with tax returns to be filed by 31 March of the
following year (15 April for a consolidated return).[49] In general, the system depends on
self-assessment, however, if there is falsification of earnings or evasion of
taxes, the government assesses heavy penalties.
The government, although requiring
penalties for late payments is being realistic in the charges it assess for
tardiness. A new act was passed in 1995, which reduced the late payment fees
from 25% of amount owed to 18% on all public aged debt including income tax,
sales tax and social security late payments.[50]
The tax administrators have developed a
system which allows for advance payment of taxes and deadlines that apply to
readjustment of taxes. Balances due on taxes must be paid five days after the
annual return has been filed and if readjustments are made then the company has
thirty days to make the payment.[51]
Corporate Tax and Incentives
As of 1995, the corporate tax rate was at
25%.[52] The republic has made a large effort to keep the
business environment attractive to foreign investors. However, the rates were
increased to 30% by 1996 and now legislation is trying to reduce the amount to
25% once again; the reduction in taxable income due to re-investment exemptions
could make the effective rate 20%, if legislation goes through.[53] Slovenia continues to honor double
taxation treaties signed by the former Yugoslavian government. In addition, a
temporary tax exemption regarding capital gains derived from securities
transactions has been extended to January 1, 1997.[54] "As of January 1, 1994, up to 20% of
the amount reinvested in fixed assets(except for cars used for personal
purposes) and long-term intangible assets is deductible from the investor’s
taxable income, provided that the amount does not exceed the tax base."[55] The tax structure also provides for 30%
deductions from taxable income for the first year if the corporation hires an
unemployed or disabled worker.
"Taxable income is defined as gross
income less expenses incurred in earning that income."[56] Some of the deductions include: 1)
depreciation on fixed assets if it does not exceed set rates, with straight
line depreciation being used only;[57] 2) interest if it does not exceed the
average interbank interest rate; 3) sums contributed for future reserves for
investment; 4) up to 70% for entertainment expenses; 5) losses may be only
carried forward for five years.[58]
Furthermore, for corporation inventories are valued
using the first-in, first-out method; last-in, first-out method; or the
weighted average method.
Individual Tax
If one is a resident citizen of Slovenia,
taxable income includes income world-wide, however, for non-residents only
income earned within Slovenia can be taxed. The system does not provide for the
taxation of families, only individuals; therefore, joint tax returns are not
filled. The income tax is paid directly through the employer and is based on
progressive rates for the income earned in the previous month.[59] (See Appendix XI) In addition, capital
gains of real estate are taxable. After January 1, 1997, gains from sales of
securities will also be taxable.[60]
The government has some deductions and
relief built into the system. All individuals may deduct an amount equal to 11%
of the annual wage in Slovenia; in fact if you earn less than this amount you
do not have to file a return. Furthermore, up to 3% of the tax base can be
deducted for each of the following: 1) expenses in purchasing state securities,
2) membership fees in various parties or organizations, 3) payments for health
care, 4) payments for education.[61]
Withholding Tax
Slovenia levies a withholding tax of 25%
for residents and 15% for non-residents. There is also a withholding tax on
royalties of 25% on all individuals.[62]
Inheritance and Gift Tax
Beneficiaries of the inheritance or gift
must pay taxes unless they are the spouse or child of the donor. If the
beneficiary is a relative(i.e., brother, sister , nephew or niece) they have to
pay only 5 Tolars on receipts with a market value of 1,164,822 Tolars.
However, if the beneficiary is not a relative they may have to pay up to 30% of
the value in taxes.[63]
Property Tax
Once the value of the building is
determined by the government, a progressive rate of no more than 1.5% is
applied. Some buildings may be exempt. Their is also a tax of 2% of the
purchase price on immovable property.[64]
Customs and Excise Duties
Rates for imports vary form 0% to 25% of
the value of the goods. There are also some excise taxes which apply to
fuel, tobacco, and alcohol.[65]
Value-Added Tax
The VAT, which was introduced to Slovenia
at the beginning of 1996, will provide important revenue to the Slovenian
government. Before the VAT was introduced, sales tax was assessed on the sale
of retail goods and services and on imports. However, several rates applied
depending on the type of good. The tax was ultimately paid by the consumer.
The VAT has already been introduced in 5 other transitional economies and it
seems to be effective. In addition according to OECD, the VAT continues to be
a key in the tax reform process in the transition countries.
As the previous discussion shows, Slovenia
has developed a highly specific, and involved tax structure. The country is
making an attempt to have a sophisticated tax administration and structure that
is effective, efficient, equitable and has a yield that will allow for enough
revenue for the government to function. In addition, the country has a highly
diversified tax base, which also strengthens the income from tax revenue.
Social Insurance
Slovenia’s current social safety nets and
income transfers are obstructing free market labor productivity, postponing
structural adjustment and are harboring high levels of unemployment. Before
entry into the EU, Slovenia must alter its social programs. There is a strong
belief among EU members that the assistance for employment fostering policies
leading to the future improvement in the quality of labor in Slovenia is more
efficient and desirable than the future income transfers covering unemployment
benefits and social safety that would otherwise have to be provided.[66]
Housing
Housing Policy is yet another area of
concern for the government. In October of 1991, the government of Slovenia
passed the Housing Act. Creating a state housing policy was necessary for the
private ownership of land and building. In addition, the government created
the National Housing Fund which was anticipated to be a "social cushion’
and was supposed to create national housing policy.[67] This did not happen!
The Housing Act ended up back firing. The
Act was created to allow for equal ownership for all citizens. Unfortunately,
some people were able to purchase greater amounts of property and effectively
bought out the property rights of their neighbors.[68] This situation has caused many tenant-owner
conflicts. Another problem created by the Housing Act was the inequity in the
amount of housing sold in each region. There was a great amount of disparity
which may cause problems for future housing reforms.
Unemployment
Slovenia experienced high levels of
unemployment in its first stage of transition as the number of individuals
seeking early retirement increased substantially. In addition, many
enterprises that had entire branches, equipment, factories in the other
Yugoslavian republics went bankrupt or lost a large sector of their business.[69] Therefore, unemployment was a huge social
problem for the new Republic of Slovenia. In 1992, 140,000 people were
unemployed.[70] The transition of the economy brought about
increased need for social insurance. The residents considered retirement
income systems(RIC) the most important part of the social safety net since the
RIC alleviated the economic hardships faced by the retired elderly. The
government of Slovenia knew how these problems used to be solved and they knew
how the EU wanted them to deal with it. The dilemma was deciding what was in
the country’s best interest.
There was a complex relationship between
spending priorities on social safety and on human capital development. The
trade-off in the short-run balanced the government and the private sector
expenditures on welfare and investment in human capital against high
unemployment, increasing poverty, and a high share of retired persons in the
total population absorbing funds that could otherwise be allocated on labor
training programs. However, investment in human capital had the possibility
of increasing productivity and labor force competitiveness in the long-run.
Without sufficient qualifications, Slovenia’s workers experienced high
unemployment and created a demand for compensatory benefits that would have to
be financed either by limited domestic sources or by external savings.[71]
Pensions and Disability
In 1995, the managers of the Pension and
Disability Insurance Fund (ZPIZ) finished the business year with a deficit of
12 billion Tolars.[72] However, the ZPIZ has made it a priority to insure
that all pensioners received their pensions. Additional support for the ZPIZ
and their policy came from the Slovenian Parliament, which passed an increase
of 42 billion Tolars for the funding of the ZPIZ.[73] Furthermore, Slovenia is one of the few
countries in transition that has tried to keep monthly old-age pensions as a
relatively constant percentage rate of the average monthly gross wages. (See
Appendix XII ) This has helped elderly citizens provide for their own needs
through their pensions.
Unemployment
Slovenia also has a National Unemployment
Office (RZZ). This office reported in February 1996, 123,689 people remained
unemployed which is 1.9% more than February 1995.[74] This further supports that the economy of
Slovenia may be experiencing a slow down. As of July of 1996, the RZZ reported
that unemployment was 13.7% but according to the ILO definition of
unemployment, the figure was much lower at 7.3%.[75] However, with the change in government,
hopes are that these issues will be discussed and policies implemented to
reduce the level of unemployment. Currently, the country is providing
unemployment insurance for the people without jobs who register with the RZZ.
Conclusion
Slovenia remains a powerhouse in
comparison to some of the other former Eastern Bloc countries. It has proceed
with some caution, realizing the changes that are necessary for a stable free
market economy. Now, with new leaders, the country has to decide whether it
will continue the course set forth by the originators of the country or whether
it will go back, taking more conservative steps. From Slovenia’s current
actions, it would seem that the next step is either Associate Membership or
Full Membership in the European Union.
Janez Drnovsek when presenting the 1996
budget to parliament informed the legislative body that "Slovenia met
three of the five Maastricht criteria for introducing a single European currency:
‘Our public debt is well below the European average and the budget is balanced,
which is significantly better than the European Union average. We also meet
the third criterion on the convertibility of the national currency. Two
criteria remain: both our average interest rate and our inflation is too high,
but we are planning to cut inflation down to about 6.5%.’"[76] Currently, Slovenia seems to be ahead of
some of the current members of the EU in satisfying the Maastricht Treaty’s
requirements. In addition, the question remains, whether Slovenia will join
NATO. The new parliament may have a well defined opposition to this
prospect.
Additionally, Slovenia is flourishing as
an economic center of commerce in the East. Slovenia needs to strengthen its
ties with other eastern countries, such as Russia, in order to develop its
trade partners. The transitioning countries can serve as a new market for the
West as well as Slovenia. Furthermore, additional trade partners exist in the
far east, which are currently not being considered.
Many challenges face the transition
countries as the century comes to a close. It will be important to watch these
economies as they begin to rise above the already established economies of the
West. It will be important that Slovenia manage it’s inflation rate, keep
interest rates at a stable level and insure that the Tolar remain at a
controlled level. All these factors will play a large role in determining
successful public financial and monetary policy in the Republic of Slovenia.
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